Hand up: how many of you expected Tadej Pogačar to win the Giro d’Italia, Tour de France, and World Road Championships this year? In retrospect, not a wild prediction; but did you really think it would happen? Even when racing produces winners we might reasonably expect, it sometimes does so in unpredictable ways – could anyone have foreseen Kasia Niewiadoma’s down-to-the-wire Tour de France Femmes win, coming off the back of a gutsy ride and a massively unfortunate crash by Demi Vollering?
All of which is to say: prediction is folly. It’s also fun, which is why we’re doing it. We’re going on the record to make our best-educated guesses about how the 2025 men’s (Joe) and women’s (Abby) WorldTour seasons will unfold: the riders who will animate it and the storylines that we’ll follow. Disagree? Of course you do – that’s what sporting debates are all about; let us know in the comments. And of course, what fun would this be if we didn’t promise to check back in a year and see accurate we were. Today: questions and answers about which riders will animate the season to come.
How soon will Anna van der Breggen be back on top of the podium?
Pretty quickly. The question isn’t will Anna van der Breggen win again when she returns to the peloton, it’s when will she win again, or even how early into the season will she take her first victory. Winning a spring Classic will be hard for the former World Champion with the current level of the peloton, having been away from the peloton for three years, but definitely not impossible. Something like the Amstel Gold Race is well within reach. By pushing the potential deadline of a win out to June the door opens for Van der Breggen’s first WorldTour win since the 2021 Vuelta a Burgos to be … the Vuelta a Burgos, or any of the other Spanish stage races that take place directly after the Ardennes. –Abby Mickey
Will Tadej Pogačar continue to destroy the competition?
Not quite. Listen, I’m not saying Tadej will have an awful year at all. He might win Strade Bianche again after a solo breakaway of only 50 km this time, not 82. But I think the Slovenian superstar will struggle to come close to his superlative 2024 season. Part of that is rising competition, but not all. Pogačar has had a very busy and visible offseason, an artifact of the necessary social and sponsor engagements that accompany being the Tour de France champion. That schedule, by its nature and the laws of space time, means that he simply hasn’t been able to be as devoted and focused as he was last offseason. That might mean he wins “only” one Monument and one Grand Tour this year. Which one? My bet’s on the Vuelta. –Joe Lindsey
Will Demi Vollering thrive at FDJ-Suez?
Heck yeah. Winning both the Vuelta a España Femenina and the Tour de France Femmes would indicate a more-than-successful transition to a new team by Demi Vollering, but her happiness at FDJ-Suez will go far beyond just the results on the page. A self-proclaimed sensi (sensitive person), Vollering will find a nurturing, caring and supportive environment at FDJ-Suez that was lacking for the Dutchwoman at SD Worx-Protime. Not only will she thrive professionally, she will also find a space within the sport personally that will rocket her to new heights. –AM
Can Wout van Aert ever win that cobble Monument?
There’s always next year! That’s what 2024 felt like for the Belgian cobble crusher, who was positively flying at the end of March with top 3s in every lead-up race to Holy Week. But that stupid, senseless Kanarieberg descent in Dwars (which was conspicuously NOT on the Tour of Flanders route and has now been removed from WorldTour races entirely) smashed his dreams and collarbone on the road at 80 km/h. That’s on the heels of 2023, where he was on the attack and dropping nemesis Mathieu van der Poel on the Carrefour de l’Arbre at Paris-Roubaix when he flatted.
There’s always something standing in the way for Wout. For 2025, I think it’ll be the long recovery from that bad knee injury suffered at the Vuelta a España. Because it’s the offseason, we haven’t really seen the full extent of that process, but he didn’t ride outside for a month after that crash. He’s got plenty of time to put together a strong return to form and his plans to race cyclocross are encouraging. But at 30, the window to win Flanders or Roubaix is just starting to close, and I don’t think he gets through it in 2025. –JL
How quickly will Pauline Ferrand-Prévot re-adjust to road racing?
Fast, but not as fast as AvdB. Like Van der Breggen, Ferrand-Prèvot will probably win a WorldTour race in 2025, but she might have to wait a little longer than her old Dutch teammate. Ferrand-Prèvot has been racing at the highest level for years, but racing a cross country mountain bike event is very different from a long day in the saddle on the road. Van der Breggen has also been close to the racing, while Ferrand-Prèvot has not. Adjusting to the new peloton might take a few months for the Frenchwoman. Visma-Lease a Bike will also have their attention firmly on Marianne Vos for the early months of the year, allowing Ferrand-Prèvot the space to learn the ropes again. –AM
Worse season: Ineos Grenadiers or Tom Pidcock?
Pidders. The messy, late-in-the-year divorce probably left both parties in a better place, but Ineos bounces back faster. Without Pidcock, Ineos has a clearer rider hierarchy and less distraction, although they have their own significant challenges. Pidcock also gets clarity at Q36.5, but what he may struggle with is opportunity. As a ProTeam, Q36.5 will rely on discretionary invites to top WorldTour events. Most of those rely on a greasy little sidelight to the business called “sponsor activation.” It’s why banners for Tudor watches were strewn all over RCS events in 2024 just as the team happened – quel chance! – to get invites to essentially every RCS event but almost no ASO races. Unless Q36.5 owner Ivan Glasenberg wants to pony up, his team may struggle for invites to major ASO and Flanders Classics races where Pidcock can shine. –JL
Will this be Marianne Vos’ last season with Visma-Lease a Bike?
Probably. Vos was Visma’s premiere signing when the team formed in 2021. She has remained a key component, and the top rider, at the Dutch team for five years but 2025 might be her last season with the team of yellow and black. Retirement is likely still a ways out for Vos, but with reports of clashes between management and riders since the departure of general manager Esra Tromp (now running EF-Oatly-Cannondale), it’s surprising Vos has remained as long as she had. She’s not one to break a contract, even though some riders have left Visma-Lease a Bike prematurely, but when that contract is up at the end of the year expect to see Vos moving on to rack up victories for another team. Who will it be? Well, that’s some fun speculation for the 2025 season. -AM
Can Primož Roglič ever win the Tour?
Nope. Listen, I love me some Roglič. But it is impossible to look at the man’s body of work the past four seasons and not conclude that the Tour de France is the substance of his nightmares. He is a stone-cold killer in almost any other setting, including against his own teammates sometimes. That 2023 Giro comeback where he Roglified Geraint Thomas in the final TT? This year’s Vuelta, calmly winching Ben O’Connor back on the overall until the inexorable catch? He’s won a Grand Tour in four of the last five seasons, plus an Olympic gold medal and a Monument in that same timeframe.
But since that fated 2020 Tour, he has yet to even finish the race, much less challenge for the win. He’s also 35 years old and in his final contract year at Red Bull. Full props to him for helping raise the game at the team; everyone speaks glowingly of his impact on the organization. But even as Red Bull builds itself into one of the powerhouses of the sport, it’s increasingly clear that Roglič himself – however long he keeps racing – will not be the rider to lead them to the next level: truly contending for a Tour de France win. –JL
Will Lorena Wiebes reign supreme again in sprints?
It’s not that Lorena Wiebes won’t be as good in 2025 as she was in 2023 and 2024, it’s that there are more riders rising to her level who will be able to challenge the Dutchwoman in the new year. Wiebes has been, without question, the best female sprinter in the peloton for years. For a minute there it looked as though Charlotte Kool would challenge her, but that ultimately came to nothing until the 2024 Tour de France when Kool bested Wiebes fair and square on stage 2 into Rotterdam.
That victory proved that Kool has what it takes to take on Wiebes, and we’re going to see a lot more of it in 2025. Picnic-PostNL will put even more firepower towards Kool’s lead-out to challenge SD Worx-Protime’s lineup, and with any luck Kool will stay healthy ahead of the Classics. Chiara Consonni will also receive different support at Canyon-SRAM Zondacrypto. Imagine a dialed lead-out consisting of Chloe Dygert, Zoe Bäckstedt, Maria Martins, and Maike van der Duin. –AM
Female breakout riders to watch
Cat Ferguson (Movistar): In case you’ve missed the Cat Ferguson hype train it’s time to jump on. This 18-year-old phenom signed a three-year deal with Movistar for the 2025-2027 season that included a few months as a trainee at the tail end of 2024. Since signing on, Ferguson won the first stage of the AG Tour de la Semois in Belgium and both junior World Championships titles (ITT and road). Before she was picked up by the Spanish team she piled up seven wins in 2024 and seven wins in 2023, not including jerseys and overalls at various junior stage races or cyclocross. The girl’s got talent, there’s no question about it. –AM
Babette van der Wolf (EF-Oatly-Cannondale): After the collapse of Lifeplus-Wahoo, EF-Oatly-Cannondale picked up one of that team’s more promising young riders, Babette van der Wolf. The 20-year-old Dutch rider had a few key results in 2024 worth noting: sixth at Drentse Acht van Westerveld – the 1.1 that takes place the day before Ronde van Drenthe – third at Antwerp Port Epic, and three top 10s at stages of the Baloise Ladies Tour. She’s only in her fourth year racing UCI-level races and her progression has been steady. With the support of EF-Oatly-Cannondale she will do great things in the coming years. –AM
Isabella Holmgren (Lidl-Trek): One of Lidl-Trek’s youngsters, Isabella Holmgren is well known on the mountain bike and cyclocross circuits. She won both U23 XCC and XCO world titles this summer, along with a handful of the U23 World Cup rounds in both events. She’s cleaned up at various cyclocross races including the Junior World Championships and Pan-American Championships in 2023. On the road she is a bit less experienced, but that didn’t stop her finishing second overall and second in three of the four stages of the Tour de l’Avenir this year. If she spends a little more time on the road for Lidl-Trek expect to see her pulling in some impressive results. Did I mention she’s only 19? –AM
Paula Ostiz (Movistar): Another young new signing for Movistar, 17-year-old Paula Ostiz picked up a handful of wins in junior races across Spain in 2024. She won the junior time trial at the European Championships and finished second behind her future teammate Ferguson in the junior World Championships road race. She has very little experience but has already inked a four-year deal through 2028 with Movistar. Her big breakout might not be next year, but watch for her in the future. –AM
Julia Kopecký (SD Worx-Protime): One of SD Worx-Protime’s new additions, Julia Kopecký (no relation to Lotte) joins the Dutch team after two years with AG Insurance-Soudal’s U23 unit. In 2024 she won two stages and every jersey at the Tour de Feminin in her home country Czech Republic, plus the national time trial championship. Over the last two years she’s proven herself to be a potential future star and with SD Worx-Protime now on her side, we’ll likely get to know “the other Kopecky” a lot better in 2025. –AM
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