With the dust settling on a World Championships to remember the stunning, race-winning 100 km attack of Tadej Pogačar is certainly one for the history books. Only a week after Pogačar revealed that he is able to ride at 340 watts in zone 2 even more mind-melting numbers shine some light on just how superlative are his performances.
At times it looked like Pogačar had bitten off more than he could chew with the gap rising and falling over his two and half hour attack. The final result was a first World Championship title for Pogačar and in a way only he was able to pull off. Half a minute after Pogačar sealed the deal a storming Ben O’Connor took the silver medal with Mathieu van der Poel having to settle for bronze in a sprint for third.
Thanks to power data from Quinn Simmons, Kevin Vermaerke and Pavel Sivakov – all of whom spent a short time with the charging Slovenian – we can see what power the riders who were left in Pogačar’s wake were putting out.
7.6 W/kg was not enough for Simmons to hold Pogačar’s wheel
With 100 km and three full laps of the circuit to go Pogačar made his move on the fourth ascent of the Witikon climb. Although it didn’t necessarily look like a trademark full-gas Pogačar attack the numbers highlight just how hard the pace was. Best of the rest when Pogacar began his World Championships raid was American rider Simmons, one of the only riders to recognize the move for what it was and who valiantly fought to go with it.
Over the 41 seconds that Simmons spent grappling to hold Pogačar’s wheel on the Slovenian’s attack, he averaged 743 watts (10.3 W/kg) with a peak power of 985 watts (13.7 W/kg). Although impressive this doesn’t look to be an effort capable of distancing the whole field. But when you factor in both the location in the race where this move came and also the effort already spent on the Witikon before the attack was launched and the sustained pace to the summit, the full picture becomes clear.
With 100 km to go most podium hopefuls were looking to keep their powder dry. While a long-range attack wasn’t itself a surprise, what was unusual was the rider on the move. Tellingly, Simmons was one of the only riders to respond; none of the favourites followed. With around two and a half hours of racing remaining most of Pogačar’s rivals may have thought he was heading off on a suicide mission and were reluctant to spend the energy to follow at that relatively early stage of the race’s development. They would instead rely on teammates who – in theory – could eventually reel in the Slovenian.
There is also the context of the effort of the Witikon climb itself, which was not soft-pedaled. Over the entire 10:31 of the Witikon climb, for example, Simmons averaged 449 watts (6.2 W/kg). From Pogačar’s initial attack to the top of the climb Simmons upped his effort with a peak four-minute average of 550 watts (7.6 W/kg).
By the top of the Witikon Simmons and Italian rider Andrea Bagioli had been distanced with Pogačar, who was making his way across to the breakaway. In an excellent bit of teamwork (particularly for a race ridden without radios) Pogačar got a vital assist from compatriot Jan Tratnik, who dropped back to pace him. Once in the breakaway, it wasn’t long before Pogačar broke out and went up the road, with his UAE Team Emirates trade teammate Pavel Sivakov the only rider able to keep pace.
| Quinn Simmons Strava data | Full Witikon climb (3 laps to go) | Pogačar’s attack -> Witikon summit |
| Power | 449 watts (6.2 W/kg) | 550 watts (7.6 W/kg) |
| Duration | 10:31 | 4:00 |
| Result | Initially followed, dropped by top | Dropped by Pogačar |
9.6 W/kg for 1:50 just about keeps you in contention
On the fifth ascent of the Zürichbergstrasse and with 79 km to go, Pogačar surged again. His seated attack immediately distanced himself from all but Frenchman Sivakov and American Kevin Vermaerke, with the latter only able to hold on momentarily. Vermaerke was the first to jump onto Pogačar’s wheel and from this point to the top of the Zürichbergstrasse he held 525 watts (7.8 W/kg) for two minutes even as Pogačar put 11 seconds between himself and the American.
This left Sivakov as the lone rider battling to remain on terms with Pogačar. With almost 200 km of racing already in the legs, Sivakov’s output is almost unfathomable. For the last 1:50 of the climb, he averaged 649 watts (9.6 W/kg) which in any other race would put him firmly at the pointy end of a race-winning move. However this was only a taste of things to come. Shortly after the Zürichbergstrasse, the duo tackled the Witikon again with Sivakov pushing 447 watts (6.5 W/kg) for 5:47 having had just 1:40 between the two climbs to recover from the previous effort.
With 70 km to go Pogačar dropped the hammer yet again, and although Sivakov did his best to relay pulls with Pogačar the Slovenian ultimately took up the lion’s share of the work before heading off solo at 51 km to go. Sivakov’s numbers shine some light on just what it takes to remain on terms with the best rider in the world. After his attack from the breakaway at 79 km to go Sivakov held an eye-watering 485 watts (7 W/kg) for 8:37. This is only made even more mind-boggling when you consider that for the majority of that time, Sivakov was sitting in the draft as Pogačar pulled.
On the penultimate ascent of the Zürichbergstrasse, the elastic finally snapped for Sivakov; although he rode at over 400 watts for 3:57 Pogačar’s relentless pace proved too strong. Over this 1.74 km section of the course, Pogačar put 26 seconds into Sivakov, who was soon swept up by the chasing group behind him. On this climb alone Pogačar was 11% faster than Sivakov who was riding at 5.8 W/kg.
Sivakov worked with Pogačar for roughly a complete lap being distanced with 51.4 km remaining on the steep slopes of the Zürichbergstrasse. In total Sivakov rode with Pogačar for around 27 km which the pair completed in 36:09, for an average speed of 44.8 km/h. The resultant effort of riding at this pace around the Zurich circuit was an average power for Sivakov of 373 watts (5.2 W/kg).
Holding this pace more than five hours into the race is remarkable however this figure does not show the full picture. Within this lap, there were multiple accelerations and harder pacing on the Witikon and the other climbs on the course. When these are factored in Sivakov’s two-rider lap with Pogačar becomes even more impressive with a normalized power of 414 watts (5.75 W/kg).
| Power Data | Kevin Vermaerke | Pavel Sivakov | |||
| Move | Zurichbergstrasse (78 km) | Zurichbergstrasse (78 km, full climb) | Zurichbergstrasse (78km, last 2 km) | Zurichbergstrasse (51 km) | Full lap (27 km) |
| Duration | 3:11 (not full climb) | 8:37 | 1:50 | 3:47 (not full climb) | 36:09 |
| Power | 464 watts (6.9 W/kg) | 512 watts (7.1 W/kg) | 649 watts (9.6 W/kg) | 400 watts (5.8 W/kg) | 414 (5.75 W/kg) |
| Result | Dropped (11s) | Held the wheel | Held the wheel | Dropped (26s) | Dropped 51 km |
What does this mean?
It turns out that even with 100 km to go holding close to 7 W/kg for the last four minutes of a climb is not enough to keep you on Pogačar’s wheel. This in isolation is a staggering effort but when viewed in full frame with the context of the efforts of Sivakov the ability of Pogačar to repeatedly ride at over 7 W/kg for sustained efforts goes some way to explain just how he achieved what he did in Zurich. An effort of 9.6 W/kg for two minutes followed by another seven efforts at 6.5 W/kg is just about enough to keep you in touching distance, however this is not a one-off effort for Pogačar. His ability to do this lap after lap is ultimately what sets him apart from the rest in Zurich.
Pogačar’s solo show of strength on punchy climbs within an audacious solo mission highlights the strength and depth of his abilities. The numbers of the riders that he left in his wake go some way to show just how superior his effort was and his ability to repeatedly sustain efforts well beyond the realm of a “regular” pro rider.
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