The women’s Santos Tour Down Under is now finished – you can find our coverage via that link above – which means it’s time for the men’s race to get underway. In fact, the race has sort of already begun, with a curtain-raiser criterium held on Saturday evening that doesn’t count towards the TDU GC. The race proper starts on Tuesday January 21.
Here’s a quick snapshot of the first men’s WorldTour race of 2025, the riders to watch, the stages that matter most, and so on.
The favourites
More on the GC contenders in a moment, but here’s a quick teaser of who we expect to feature.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐: Stevie Williams, Jay Vine
⭐⭐⭐⭐: Luke Plapp
⭐⭐⭐: Mauro Schmid, Jhonatan Narvaez
⭐⭐: Lucas Hamilton, Oscar Onley
⭐: Tom Gloag
The TDU in a nutshell
Being the first WorldTour race of the season, the Tour Down Under is not like other stage races on the calendar. And that’s because it’s January.
Most riders on the startlist are coming from Europe where it’s cold and wet, so adjusting to the hot temperatures that the TDU routinely serves up takes specific heat training (as Swiss rider Noemi Rüegg showed in the women’s race.) Some will have gone to the trouble – defending champ Stevie Williams, for example – but don’t expect many of the Euro pros to feature all that prominently when they’ve only had a few days to get over the jet lag and acclimate to a temperature shift of 30 ºC or more.
The WorldTour season is also very long, and almost every rider on the startlist has bigger goals later in the year. For a good chunk of the peloton, they’re at Tour Down Under to get in some early-season race kilometres in warm weather, and build some momentum before the “real” racing begins in Europe.
It’s a slightly different story for the Aussie riders (Australia has the most riders of any nation at the race, with 23). While most are looking toward bigger goals later in the year, some take the TDU quite seriously. Jayco AlUla, for example, always wants to win its home race, and the team’s local hitters – not least Luke Plapp – always rock up in great form. And for some other riders – like those on the Australian national team, say – this is the biggest race they’ll do all year, and a great chance to shine on the world stage.
Tour Down Under is a race where bonus seconds often have a say in the overall result. Ten, six, and four seconds are available to the top three on each stage, and three-, two-, and one-second bonuses can be picked up at intermediate sprints each day. And with the race usually decided by mere seconds, snatching up time bonuses can be a key strategy at TDU.
Of note though: Luke Plapp told Escape today that “this is probably the hardest TDU we’ve ever seen and I think that leads to the time bonuses or intermediate sprints not being as important.” We’ll soon find out.
The course
As noted, the men’s Tour Down Under is raced over six stages, from Tuesday January 21 to Sunday January 26. Of those six stages, two are likely to have the biggest impact on GC, and four look more suited to the sprinters. Here’s a quick breakdown:
Stage 1: Prospect to Gumeracha (150.7 km) – A lumpy day with nearly 2,400 m of climbing, but a flat finish means this should be a bunch sprint.
Stage 2: Tanunda to Tanunda (128.8 km) – Laps of the Barossa Valley wine region, with three ascents of the Menglers Hill climb (2.7 km at 6.9%). The last ascent comes at 23 km to go, but a sprint finish is very likely.
Stage 3: Norwood to Uraidla (147.5 km) – Probably the most intriguing stage of this year’s race. The Knotts Hill climb (2.6 km at 8%) is used for the first time in the race’s history, on what is a very lumpy day (3,250 m of climbing). The final ascent comes with 5 km to go, meaning this stage could go any number of ways. A late solo winner perhaps? A reduced-bunch sprint? It feels like this could have an impact on the GC in some way. Indeed, Luke Plapp told Escape that stage 3 could be the day for the GC.
Stage 4: Glenelg to Victor Harbor (157.2 km) – The classic south-coast sprint day. A few lumps and bumps on the way to ‘Victor’ (for a total of 2,440 m of climbing) but almost certainly a bunch kick.
Stage 5: McLaren Vale to Willunga Hill (145.7 km) – The Willunga stage. Pretty standard, with two ascents to finish (3 km at 7.4%), but there is a Willunga descent early in the stage which is new. This overall leader at the end of stage 5 will win the TDU.
Stage 6: Adelaide to Adelaide (90 km) – A circuit race in the city, on the same day (and same circuit) as the new women’s 1.Pro one-day event. A sprint finish that shouldn’t affect the GC.
The favourites
Given it’s so early in the year, it’s hard to tell who’ll be going well, who’ll be taking the race seriously, and who will feature high on GC. But we can make some educated guesses.
Stevie Williams (Israel-Premier Tech) – The defending champion is targeting another overall victory, and he’s brought a great team with him. George Bennett, Michael Woods, and Simon Clarke are just some of the hitters the Welsh film buff will be able to lean on. Willunga will be his best chance of taking time, but he showed last year he can get bonus seconds at other points too.
Luke Plapp (Jayco AlUla) – The Aussie team says it is targeting the GC with local favourite Luke Plapp and Swiss rider Mauro Schmid. It’s very early in the season for Schmid, so who knows how he’s going, but he’s a real talent so don’t write him off (particularly if he’s employed a similar training protocol as his compatriot, Rüegg). Plapp tells Escape that Schmid could be one to watch if it’s a race that’s decided by bonus seconds.
Plapp, meanwhile, is in typically good form and was again the strongest rider at Nationals last week, winning the time trial then letting his teammate Luke Durbridge take the win in the road race (fun fact: this’ll be Plapp’s first time racing in non-national-champ’s-kit since he turned pro in 2022). Plapp crashed heavily in last year’s TDU, and didn’t finish, so he’ll desperately want to bounce back and win his home tour.
That’s certainly a possibility, depending on how he handles Willunga. Note that stage 3 looks a lot like the stage he won at the COVID-affected non-WorldTour edition of TDU in 2021, where he attacked on the last climb and rode away to win solo. Something to keep in mind.
Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates) – Vine won the 2023 edition of TDU in a year when there was no Willunga Hill finish (he didn’t race last year), and as a strong climber, the addition of Willunga only improves his chances. He’s shown good form so far in his Aussie campaign and would not be a surprise winner.
Note, too, that Vine has new recruit Jhonatan Narváez in support this year. The Ecuadorian was brilliant last year, finishing second on Willunga and overall, so he’ll be a great helper for Vine, if not a stand-in leader if the Aussie falters.
Others to watch
Lucas Hamilton (Ineos Grenadiers) – The 28-year-old probably never reached his potential at GreenEdge but he gets a fresh start now at Ineos. It’d be a surprise to see him win overall, but he’s a great climber on his day and if he has come to Adelaide in good form, he could feature. He’ll also have some very experienced heads guiding him this week: Geraint Thomas and Michał Kwiatkowski.
Oscar Onley (Picnic PostNL) – The Scot won on Willunga last year en route to fourth overall and a similar result wouldn’t be terribly surprising in 2025. To win overall he’d need to use his climbing chops to get a decent gap on Willunga.
Tom Gloag (Visma-Lease a Bike) – The 23-year-old Briton is a very talented climber as he showed with a stage win at the Czech Tour last year (ahead of Marc Hirschi and other big names). Might be too early in the year for him, but keep an eye out for him on debut anyway.
The sprinters
Given there are four stages that should end in a bunch kick, we should probably talk about the sprinters.
Sam Welsford (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) – The man to beat. The Aussie won three stages last year, he’s coming off an Aussie criterium title victory, and he won the curtain-raiser crit on Sunday. His lead-out train – specifically Ryan Mullen and Danny van Poppel – is one of the best in the world and they should again steer Welsford to multiple stage wins in 2025.
Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious) – The German sprinter was second on a stage last year, won a stage in 2023, and should be one of Welsford’s biggest challenges this time around.
Cameron Scott (Australian National Team) – Scott has just stepped back down to the Continental level after two years in the WorldTour with Bahrain Victorious, and heads to the TDU with the Aussie national team. He’s not at the level of Welsford, but expect to see his green and gold jersey somewhere in the mix.
Other sprinters that could feature include Kiwi champ Aaron Gate (XDS-Astana), veteran Frenchman Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), and possibly Campbell Stewart (Jayco AlUla) who’ll handle sprint duties in Caleb Ewan’s (bizarre) absence.
How to watch
You can find live coverage of each day’s race via the 7Plus and 7Mate streaming platforms if you’re in Australia. In North America you’ll find the race on Peacock or FloBikes, and Eurosport has coverage across Europe.
Tune in to Escape for daily coverage of the 2025 men’s Santos Tour Down Under.
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