Stage 4: Molina de Aragón to Zaragoza (142.3 km)
When: Wednesday, May 1
Where to watch: 🇬🇧🇪🇺 Discovery +/Eurosport, 🇺🇸 Peacock, 🇨🇦 FloBikes, 🇦🇺 SBS
When to watch: 🇬🇧 14:30 BST, 🇪🇺 15:30 CEST, 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 9:30 EDT, 🇦🇺 23:30 AEST
Stage type: Flat
What to expect: A classic bunch sprint or chaos
Stage summary:
The third stage starting in Molina de Aragón looks like a flat stage on paper, heck the peloton will lose altitude before they get to Zaragoza 142.3 km later, but the stage is perfectly placed to be disrupted by crosswinds.
Aragon, the region where the stage takes place, is known for their strong north/northwesterly winds, known as “Cierzo” winds. The strongest winds recorded in this area were 160 km/h in July 1956. The peloton will, fortunately, not have to race through such strong gusts (obviously), but 17-30 km/h winds from the west/northwest are on the forecast.
The race heads north after the start, so it’s the perfect breeding ground for echelons. Any wind above 20 km/h will encourage teams with the ability to split the peloton to try it, and there are very few changes in direction to limit the attempts.
This year, SD Worx-Protime will be on high alert at any tiny gust of wind. Last year’s mishap when Vollering, wearing red, stopped for a nature break just as Movistar lined it up to split the peloton in the crosswinds will still haunt the Dutch team – normally the one to drive the splits. A team that could be caught out is FDJ-Suez, who struggled to keep Marta Cavalli at the head of the race in the crosswinds last year at the UAE Tour. (Cavalli did not start stage 3.)
The first 20 km are supposed to be the least windy, but with 100 km to go the wind would be coming at the peloton from the left side with very little coverage. Halfway through the stage is where the possibility of splits is highest, with a very small reprieve around 57 km to go. From 45 km to 20 km from the finish the winds are strongest again, but once the peloton gets into Zaragoza the wind will be behind them (figuratively).
In the city the finish is flat, so whoever wins will be the strongest sprinter of whoever is left at the front. Or just the strongest sprinter from the bunch. The possibilities of crosswinds aren’t high, the forecast is just on the cusp.
Whether or not there are winds also determines any shift in the general classification. Normally, even with the wind, we wouldn’t see any of the major favourites in trouble, and if it’s a bunch sprint only seconds can be gained. That would mean if Vos takes the stage she could also take the red jersey. After stage 3 she is only one second down on Blanka Vas. The way she sprinted on Tuesday proved how good her form is, and if Visma-Lease a Bike thinks they can spend a day in red they will go all in for it.
My pick: I don’t know why I have to do this with my 0% success rate, but, I’ll go with Charlotte Kool. With climbs on tap on stage 5, and only a small chance of crosswinds, it feels like stage 4 will be a bunch sprint.
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