Paris-Nice was expected to be the tantalising first showdown between Remco Evenepoel and Primož Roglič in his first race in Bora-Hansgrohe colours, but by the half-way point it was already becoming clear that this was far from a mano-a-mano boxing match with everyone else fighting for the podium.
As it happened, Roglič seemed not to be firing on all cylinders and in the second act of the race, the focus was on what might be considered the second-tier contenders, the two Americans Brandon McNulty and Matteo Jorgenson in particular. It was Jorgenson - also with a new team in 2024 - who emerged victorious after eight stages having taken the fight to the favourites on a daily basis. It was a confident ride from the 24-year-old who became only the third American ever to win Paris-Nice and the first in 18 years.
- Believe it or not, Paris-Nice was Remco Evenepoel’s first race on French soil since he entered the pro ranks, and with the Tour de France on his programme for the first time in 2024, he was expected to animate the race. He delivered as early as day one, whose lumpy run-in on country roads was just asking for bold attacks.
- Despite Evenepoel’s efforts to tear up the script on stage 1, the flat finale into Les Mureaux was too enticing for the sprint teams who brought it all back together for the first of few bunch finishes. On that first day, Olav Kooij delivered on his promise with a confident victory, with Mads Pedersen in second and Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race winner Laurence Pithie (Groupama-FDJ) sneaking into third. The young Kiwi proved it was no fluke just one day later with second, putting himself into the yellow jersey, while one spot ahead of him was Tudor’s Arvid De Kleijn, the Dutch sprinter scoring a maiden WorldTour victory for the ambitious Swiss outfit.
- In the stage 3 TTT, Jumbo-Visma's extraordinary new helmets were unable (again) to take centre stage as UAE Team Emirates benefited from avoiding late rain to take the stage win 15 seconds ahead of Jayco-AlUla, with EF Education-EasyPost 20 seconds down in third. Evenepoel's Soudal-QuickStep finished two seconds off the podium to limit the Belgian's losses, while Roglič suffered an off day with Bora-Hansgrohe, losing 54 seconds to new race leader Brandon McNulty.
- In the GC race, Mattias Skjelmose, Matteo Jorgenson, McNulty and their teams all came with the same intent: to spoil the party laid out for pre-race favourites Primož Roglič and Remco Evenepoel. And for most of the more important GC stages, it worked. On Stage 4, underdogs Luke Plapp and Santiago Buitrago were let off the leash despite their insignificant deficits in the overall standings, and the result was victory for the Colombian of Bahrain-Victorious, while Plapp moved into a slender race lead. In the favourites group behind, Evenepoel was restless, but Skjelmose was not intimidated by the former world champion’s acceleration in the closing metres, and the Dane was able to overhaul the Belgian to snatch the remaining bonus seconds on the line.
- Skjelmose continued to soar in the next GC stage two days later. When Jorgenson went on the attack on the hilly roads to La Colle-sur-Loup, his former national teammate and long-time rival McNulty soon went after him, and Skjelmose was not missing the party. With Roglič embedded in the group of yellow jersey-wearer Plapp, there was a fair bit of looking around going on, which resulted only in the favourites marking each other out of contention for the stage. The leading trio had found almost a whole minute by the finish, and when Skjelmose launched his sprint, the American duo could only accept defeat, which came with the consolation prize of the race lead for McNulty, while Jorgenson moved up to second.
- The penultimate stage beckoned a GC showdown on the Madone d’Utelle, a 15.1-kilometre Cat.1 climb (average 5.7%) about 50 km inland from Nice. Soudal-QuickStep hit the lower slopes at speed with Louis Vervaeke doing a monster pull for almost half the ascent, Ilan van Wilder ready to take over with Evenepoel on his wheel. It was a pleasant surprise to see Laurens De Plus bringing Egan Bernal up at that point, the revitalised Colombian eager to go for sprint points and bonus seconds wherever he could. It came to not a great deal for the 2019 Tour de France champion - though he did snatch maximum points just inside 7 km to go - but while the in-form contenders cracked on up the climb, Bernal pushed on to finish just outside the top 10, ensuring his solid GC placing stood for another day.
- Evenepoel was the first to make a concerted effort to blow up the group after the bonus sprint, but he couldn’t shake off his key rivals, and after a lull in the action, Aleksandr Vlasov made the best of his relatively low GC placing (15th) to attack, leaving teammate Roglič (11th) to mark the diminishing group of favourites. McNulty began to struggle in the last 3 km as Evenepoel continued to probe into Vlasov’s gap, and sensing weakness in the yellow jersey, Jorgenson joined the Belgian in his efforts to push on, with Skjelmose, Roglič and Buitrago close at hand. Vlasov shivered across the line eight seconds ahead of Evenepoel who won the slow-motion sprint for maximum bonus seconds, Roglič stopping the clock calm as you like in the wheel. McNulty meanwhile, was able to limit his losses to Jorgenson et al., holding onto just four seconds before Sunday’s bombastic finale.
- On the infamous final stage finishing in Nice, Lidl-Trek tried to make something happen for Skjelmose who stood third on GC going into stage 8, but despite the efforts of Mads Pedersen from the early move, Evenepoel stepped into centre stage once again with repeated attacks from early on the Cat.1 Côte de Peille (6.5 km at 6.9%). It took a few tries to get much room, Jorgenson always lightning fast with his reactions, but within four kilometres, Evenepoel managed to crack all but Jorgenson and the pair went clear with opportunistic stage 7-winner Vlasov. The American was unshakable and before long Evenepoel realised he would be unable to close his deficit, shifting his focus instead to working with virtual race leader Jorgenson to pin down a top GC finish and the stage win - the Belgian comes away with the points and KOM jersey too.
- It would be unfair and inaccurate to describe this week as a coming-of-age performance for Matteo Jorgenson, but it’s now eminently clear that he’s found a great home at his new team, and he paid them back for their faith with the first WorldTour stage victory of his career, and against some top-tier rivals. What’s more, he’s looked confident doing it - another string to the formidable Visma-Lease A Bike bow.
Brief stage-by-stage results:
- Olav Kooij (Visma-Lease a Bike)
- Arvid de Kleijn (Tudor Pro Cycling)
- UAE Team Emirates
- Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain-Victorious)
- Olav Kooij
- Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)
- Aleksandr Vlasov (Bora-Hansgrohe)
- Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep)
Brief analysis:
- UAE Team Emirates looked like one of the strongest, if not the strongest GC squads at the race, with the flying Finn Fisher-Black joining João Almeida, Brandon McNulty and Jay Vine, with Marc Soler, Felix Großschartner and Nils Politt in support. However, after a barnstorming team time trial victory on stage 3, the edges began to fray around McNulty’s vulnerable leadership with Almeida and Vine falling away from contention. Never was this more evident than in the hills of this final weekend where the American was often left exposed. Mercifully, Großschartner was still available to him inside the last 50 km of stage 8, but the Austrian evaporated when the attacks began, and with Jorgenson up the road with Evenepoel, McNulty was left in a solitary fight to salvage something from the race, even the podium at risk of slipping from his grip in the moist conditions.
- That said, McNulty was far from the only rider left teamless on stage 8, Evenepoel one of a number of riders forced to surf wheels and take matters into their own hands, along with Jorgenson. And in the end it did neither of them any damage, benefiting from Skjelmose’s teammate Mads Pedersen’s sturdy pulls mid-stage, before Evenepoel and Jorgenson left both Danes behind in the chase groups, and rode together to the finish in sunny Nice.
- Speaking of weather, the ‘Race to the Sun’ did live up to its name in the end, but only in the last 30 kilometres of the race. There were some truly grim days out on the way to Nice and a number of riders visibly suffered in the cold and wet conditions, which were the cause of some race-ending crashes. Stage 4-winner Buitrago was a crash victim early on the final day, and David Gaudu bowed out before the stage as he continued to feel the effects of his uphill tumble on stage 4 while fumbling with his jacket.
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