Mathieu van der Poel may have relinquished his rainbow bands on the roads of Zurich to a defiant Tadej Pogačar, however only one week later the 2023 Road World Champion found himself pulling on the distinctive jersey in a different discipline in Leuven, his eighth UCI elite world title.
The route took the race on a 180 km journey through the farming lands of Belgium starting in Halle before meandering its way west to its conclusion in Leuven. Although the course featured over 1,500 meters of climbing it was over continuously rolling terrain rather than any major defining climbs. This led to an intense, fast race with Van der Poel averaging over 38 km/h on his way to victory.
Given the high-speed nature of the race, drafting strategies typical of road racing represent a significant saving in energy even over some other gravel events; however, the increased rolling resistance of soft surfaces makes the saving less pronounced than on smooth tarmac. This is because on gravel a larger percentage of the resistive force experienced by the rider comes from the road surface. As a result, the power on display throughout the top 10 men’s finishers was off the charts, with multiple riders averaging well over 300 watts for nearly five hours of racing. Here’s how his victory played out in the data.
A full gas opening hour
The first 10 minutes of the race were a sign of things to come. For Team GB’s Connor Swift, the first 10 minutes of the race saw a normalised power of 424 watts (5.65 W/kg) with over 173 km of racing remaining.
It was a similar story for Belgium’s Toon Aerts despite hiding in the wheels. Even though he was more sheltered in this early part of the race, the first 10 minutes were still ridden at a normalised power of 390 watts (5.42 W/kg). In isolation, these aren’t mind-blowing numbers but for the opening 10 minutes of a five-hour race, it looked like the pace was going to be full gas from start to finish.
That prediction held up with a relentless first hour of the race. This section of the course featured a third of the race’s elevation gain, leading to punchy racing with the peloton averaging 37 km/h. The effort required to stay at the pointy end of the race is clear from Swift’s normalised power of 407 watts (5.42 W/kg). Based on his Strava data this opening hour resulted in a TSS (training stress score) of 104. With 140 km remaining this level of physical stress highlights the brutality of the race.
This first hour was even more testing for Belgium’s Quinten Hermans. At 64 kg Hermans is 11 kilos lighter than Swift; on a climb this is advantageous, however on a punchy course on gravel the ultimate determining factor is raw watts. This means that although Hermans’ normalised power for the first hour was significantly less than Swift’s – averaging 353 watts compared to Swift’s 407 – his power to weight was higher at 5.52 W/kg, yielding a TSS of exactly 100.
TSS is a measure of the stress a ride puts on your body. A TSS of 100 is equivalent to riding at a normalised power equivalent to your FTP for one hour. With both Swift and Hermans achieving around 100 TSS in the opening hour, both riders were riding close to their limits from the flag drop.
| Opening efforts | First 10 Minutes | First Hour |
| Connor Swift | 424 watts (5.65 W/kg) | 407 watts ( 5.42 W/kg) |
| Toon Aerts | 390 watts (5.42 W/kg) | 375 watts (5.67 W/kg) |
| Quinten Hermans | 363 watts (5.67 W/kg) | 353 watts (5.52 W/kg) |
No respite in hour two
While the hilly first hour of racing was the most intense, the second 60 minutes were only slightly less aggressive. Swift’s normalised power for the second hour sat at 390w (5.2 W/kg) with a TSS of 96. Taken together, the first two hours resulted in a TSS that is equivalent to riding at FTP. That goes a long way to illustrate just how dynamic the racing was and also the toll it was taking.
The relentless pace was felt across the peloton with Hermans also holding a normalised power of 338w (5.3w/kg) and Timo Kielich averaging 393w (5.4w/kg). At this point, with the front runners of the race already at a TSS of around 200 there were still almost three hours of racing to go; behind, things began to fragment significantly
In the third hour of the race, things finally did begin to settle, thanks partly to flatter terrain: just 276 meters of elevation gain, which led to less surging. This can be seen in the narrowing between riders’ average power and normalised power. Swift’s first hour saw a 49-watt difference between his average and his normalised power; that large gap signifies a lot of high-power surges above his threshold. In the third hour, the difference narrowed to 37 watts with his normalised power averaging 349 watts (4.65 W/kg). The same was the case for Hermans who had only a 27-watt difference between his average and normalised power for the third hour. For Hermans this was the first hour where his normalised power dropped under 300 watts.
| Mid-race comparisons | Hour two | Hour three |
| Connor Swift | 390 watts (5.2 W/kg) | 349 watts (4.65 W/kg) |
| Quinten Hermans | 338 watts (5.3 W/kg) | 288 watts (4.5 W/kg) |
| Timo Kielich | 392 watts (5.38 W/kg) | 334 watts (4.58 W/kg) |
Hour four: Attacks fly
The race had been dynamic from the start with van der Poel looking to better Pogacar’s 100 km raid at the Road World Championship a week before by going alone with 110 km remaining. Although that attack gave Van der Poel a 30-second advantage over the chasing group at one point, his lead was short-lived.
After he was re-caught, at 60 km Van der Poel attacked again, using the Sanglier Gravier section to force the pace and test the lead group. At first, it was only Swift who could respond with an almighty effort more than three hours deep into the race. Over the whole segment that the attack took place Swift averaged 464 watts (6.2 W/kg) for three minutes and 53 seconds. Within this came his initial response to Van der Poel, an 18-second burst peaking at 1,155 watts (15.4 W/kg) and averaging 974w (13 W/kg). The total duration of the attack before things settled back into regularity was 55 seconds with Swift holding 618 watts (8.24 W/kg).
Meanwhile, Hermans and the first chase were desperately trying to save their race and get back on terms with the lead duo. Over the 18 seconds that saw Swift and Van der Poel pull away, Hermans didn’t have the firepower to match their explosivity; his peak power was relatively close, but significantly lower average power tells the tale. He ultimately needed the cooperation of the chasers around him to reel in the duo up the road.
With the group again together and around 40 km of racing remaining, Florian Vermeersch made what would be the race-deciding move with a sharp attack from the back of the leading group; only Van der Poel was able to respond. With Belgium represented it was down to Swift and Matej Mohorič to chase them down. Swift did surge to jump across, however the fatigue was beginning to show. Similar to Hermans’ unsuccessful attempt to follow the first attack, Swift’s peak output essentially matched his earlier effort, but his average power – even over a shorter duration of 11 seconds – was considerably lower than his 18-second average from the first move and shows why he was unable to follow as Hermans had been earlier.
| MvdP attacks | Peak Power | Average Power | Result |
| Swift – attack 1 (18s) | 1,155 watts (15.4 W/kg) | 974 watts (13 W/kg) | Held Van der Poel’s wheel |
| Swift – attack 2 (11s) | 1,145 watts (15.3 W/kg) | 709 watts (9.45 W/kg) | dropped |
| Hermans – attack 1 (18s) | 908 watts (14.2 W/Kg) | 587 watts (9.2 W/kg) | dropped |
From this point, the data shows the difference in effort between Swift and Hermans, with Swift a crucial part of the driving force trying to close the gap to Van der Poel and Vermeersch and Hermans doing far less work. Over the opening 10 minutes after the attack Swift settled into the chase, averaging 333w (4.4 W/kg) with a normalised power of 365w (4.87 W/kg). Meanwhile, in the same group, Hermans was beginning to dial back his effort; over the same section he averaged just 265w (4.14w/kg) with a normalised power of 280 (4.38w/kg).
From Van der Poel and Vermeersch’s attack, this trend was visible over the following 28km which took the race to final descent before the flat roll into the finish. For both Swift and Hermans, this 28km section took 45 minutes and 22 seconds however diving into the data shows the difference in effort this took. Swift along with Mahoric was doing most of the heavy lifting through this section, keeping the pace high in hopes of catching Van der Poel and Vermeersch. This saw Swift average 325w (4.3w/kg) with a normalised average of 360w (4.8w/kg). At the same time, Hermans was able to hide in the wheels averaging 266w (4.15w/kg) with a normalised average of 288w (4.5w/kg). As it would transpire this difference in effort within the fourth hour of racing looks to have influenced the result for the minor places.
| Swift v. Hermans – last section | Full MvdP attack (3:56) | 10 minutes | 28 km |
| Connor Swift | 464 watts (6.2 W/kg) | 333 watts (4.4 W/kg) | 325 watts (4.3 W/kg) |
| Quinten Hermans | 370 watts (5.78 W/kg) | 265 watts (4.14 W/kg) | 266 watts (4.15 W/kg) |
The final sprint
Mohorič and Swift’s chase proved unsuccessful with Van der Poel distancing Vermeersch to win by 1:03 with the Swift/Hermans group coming in 3:47 down. With the last step on the podium still up for grabs, it was looking like it would be a five-way sprint for third. After conserving his energy through the final 30 km Hermans was well-placed for a sprint finish. Jumping earlier than Swift, his 15-second sprint was enough to take the bronze medal.
At the other end of the group was Swift, his chasing efforts in the latter stages of the race clearly taking the sting out of his legs. After coving a faux early sprint Swift then jumped again when the actual sprint kicked off but it was only enough to claim sixth on the day. Kielich and Aerts came in 9th and 10th, respectively, almost 30 seconds behind the Hermans-led chase.
| The sprint | Peak | Average |
| Quinten Hermans (3rd) | 1,264 watts (19.73 W/kg) | 1,062 watts (15.6 W/kg) – 15s |
| Connor Swift (6th, at 1s) | 1,299 watts (17.32 W/kg) | 1,156 watts (15.4 W/kg) – 11s |
Gravel racing is non-stop and full-on
Looking across the data of Swift, Hermans, Kielich and Toon Aerts shows just how intense gravel racing is. Conversely to road racing, the dynamics of gravel racing on the Belgium Worlds course seemed to very seldom ease up for any notable periods. In a road race once the early break has been established there is normally a period of easier riding until the chase begins in earnest. The trend in gravel is for the race to be taken on from the front with riders slowly dropping until the strongest remain.
Over the full 180 km course Swift averaged 330w (4.4 W/kg) with a normalised power of 377w (5.03 W/kg), illustrating just how aggressive the racing was from start to finish. Even with the slight tactical advantage that Hermans had in the closing stages of the race the story his power file tells is largely the same with an average of 280w (4.38 W/kg) and a normalised power of 318w (4.97 W/kg).
In the group behind that finished 4:15 down on Van der Poel, Aerts and Kielich have equally impressive stats. Aerts rode with an average power of 309w (4.3 W/kg) and 353w (4.9 W/kg) normalised and Kielich achieved some equally impressive numbers for 9th averaging 326w (4.47 W/kg) and normalised power of 366w (5.01 W/kg) for the entire race. Although when the race split apart we weren’t treated to the same dizzying numbers of the World Championships Road Race, the fact that there was almost no point to recover in the race meant that any effort into the red came at a great cost.
This level of racing over 180 km is comparable to a spring Classic, however with around 90 minutes less racing than Flanders it sits closer to Paris-Roubaix in this regard. Defining this race was just how hard the opening hour of racing was, putting riders close to or above their limit with around 145 km of racing still to go.
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