With another WorldTour season in the books and only one year left before the end of the current relegation cycle, we already have a pretty good idea of which teams are likely to make up the WorldTour peloton in 2026.
Potential sponsor woes aside, things are looking very good for Lotto Dstny, and that is also true for Israel-Premier Tech, the other squad that was demoted last cycle. At the other end of the spectrum, things are looking quite grim for Astana Qazaqstan, who achieved their goal of getting a Tour de France stage win for Mark Cavendish this year but took no other WorldTour wins the entire season. Arkéa-B&B Hotels is currently in line for relegation as well.
For those needing a refresher: Every three years, the top 18 teams in the men’s peloton are offered “WorldTeam” status, which comes with automatic invites to all WorldTour races. The rankings are determined by the UCI points hauls of each team’s top 20 riders. Two years ago, both Lotto Dstny and Israel-Premier Tech found themselves outside of the all-important top 18, allowing Arkéa-B&B Hotels and Alpecin-Deceuninck to move up in their place.
This time around, both Lotto Dstny and Israel-Premier Tech have been much better at racking up UCI points than they were last cycle. Both ProTeams have enjoyed occasional successes at the sport’s biggest races while also keenly mopping up points at the smaller WorldTour events like the Tour of Guangxi, where Lotto took a stage and the overall title while Israel won two stages earlier this month.
All told, UAE Team Emirates finished 2024 as the highest-ranked team in the WorldTour, surprising no one. Tadej Pogačar himself secured more points this year than the entire rosters of a few WorldTour teams. Visma-Lease a Bike and Soudal-QuickStep were the next best scorers this year, and at the other end of the spectrum were Cofidis and Astana. At least as far as Astana is concerned, that is a trend that continues the state of affairs from 2023, and it is the combination of those two years of results that leave us where we are today.
As you might expect, UAE sits atop the two-year rankings as well, but it’s the bottom of those rankings that will have the real impact on the WorldTour milieu of 2026. Remember: The teams outside of the top 18 are in danger of relegation. With that in mind, here are the relevant numbers at the bottom of the UCI points standings for the past two seasons combined:
- Intermarché-Wanty (WorldTeam): 20,407
- DSM-Firmenich-PostNL (WorldTeam): 18,749
- Cofidis (WorldTeam): 18,327
- Arkéa-B&B Hotels (WorldTeam): 15,964
- Uno-X Mobility (ProTeam): 15,508
- Astana Qazaqstan (WorldTeam): 13,620
- Total Energies (ProTeam): 10,662
At the moment, Astana and Arkéa-B&B Hotels are the two WorldTeams with the ignominious distinction of being outside of the top 18. Both Lotto Dstny and Israel-Premier Tech, meanwhile, are comfortably inside the top 18 (ninth and 14th respectively), and thus they are the two second-division teams currently in line to move up.
Outside of Astana and Arkéa, DSM-Firmenich-PostNL and Cofidis are the next most-endangered WorldTeams, but it is worth pointing out that relegation seems unlikely, though not impossible, for either of them.
For one thing, they both have a pretty big points advantage over Arkéa and Uno-X, and an absolutely massive one over Astana. In fact, even if the Kazakhstani outfit had won all three Grand Tours this year, they still wouldn’t crack the top 18. Another way of framing that grim outlook is that if Astana and Cofidis both replicate their 2024 points hauls next year with the tiny little exception of Astana also winning all three Grand Tours, the Kazakhstani squad will still be in line for demotion.
This season’s results would suggest that the upward-trending Uno-X team could be the biggest threat to 18th-placed Cofidis, with the Norwegian squad outscoring the French one this year, though it would still take a pretty big effort from Uno-X to claw ahead in 2026.
All that aside, hunting for UCI points is probably a secondary concern for a handful of teams at various spots in the UCI rankings right now; financial uncertainties cloud the futures of several squads in the mix for promotion and demotion.
Astana’s perennial financial woes do not seem to have been resolved this season. The team recently missed a deadline to apply for UCI credentials next year, though the reasoning behind that missed deadline is unclear at the moment. Arkéa, meanwhile, is on the hunt for a sponsor to keep the team afloat past 2025, and team boss Emmanuel Hubert has apparently allowed his riders to look elsewhere given the unknowns. Even the more successful Lotto Dstny, seemingly due for a return to the WorldTour, is one of those teams with uncertain prospects past next season – they are losing title sponsor Dstny.
All told, it is not entirely clear whether the two WorldTeams likeliest to be relegated or one of those likely to get promoted will even exist by the time relegation rolls around.
In any case, riders and sports directors have a brief window to rest and recover right now before staring down one last season’s worth of races to secure UCI points (and maybe sponsor interest as well). At least in terms of UCI points, Arkéa and Uno-X have their work cut out for them if they want to climb into the top 18, but the opportunities will be there for them, and soon. Indeed, it is in upcoming events like the Tour Down Under and the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race where WorldTour hopes can be realized – or dashed.
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