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Tadej Pogačar is not inevitable

Tadej Pogačar is not inevitable

For the first time in a long time, the best bike racer in the world looked disappointed after a bike race.

Cor Vos

As a repeat winner at Milan-San Remo, Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) pulled off a rare feat on Saturday, breaking a streak of 17 years with 17 different winners at La Classicisima. Just as rare, perhaps, was the emotion written on the face of the rider to Van der Poel's left on the final podium.

For the first time in a long time, Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) looked disappointed, at least for a few minutes after the race.

After a year of utter dominance at practically every race he has targeted, the best bike racer in the world was bested on Saturday. Pogačar's subsequent disappointment was an abrupt change from the celebratory exuberance cycling fans have seen for the last 12 months of Pogačar winning left and right.

"It is what it is. It's a really hard race for me to make the difference," Pogačar said afterward. "The laws of physics are at play here, and I can't do magic."

That much is clear after watching Pogačar try and try again to drop Van der Poel on the Poggio – but just two weeks ago, when he crashed at Strade Bianche and still won by over a minute, it sure seemed like Pogačar could indeed pull rabbits out of hats at will.

Saturday, then, was a reality check for the reigning world champion, who is a threat to win on almost any terrain, but who has now raced Milan-San Remo five times without winning.

Coming off of the best single season by a male bike racer this millennium, Pogačar kept the good times rolling in 2025 with wins at the UAE Tour and Strade Bianche. He came into Milan-San Remo as a slight favorite with the bookies. Even if the race route does not seem to suit his particular skillset all that well, he has come close at San Remo in the past and he and his UAE squad had a plan and all the motivation in the world to execute on Saturday. Said plan seemed to work in principle, as Pogačar forced the decisive split of the race on the Cipressa, but it did not translate into a win.

Van der Poel held on over the Poggio, Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers) caught back on, and Pogačar settled for third behind them. Pogačar was left to wonder what else he could have done to flip the script, and as such, he could only appear so upbeat in his post-race interviews and on the final podium. He acknowledged the prowess of the rivals that had finished ahead of him, but also made it clear that he would be checking the tape to see if any lessons could be learned from the day, and that he was already thinking about the 2026 edition of Milan-San Remo.

Try as he might, Pogačar could not shake Van der Poel at San Remo. Again.

"We will analyze and we will see what went wrong," he said afterward. "Right now, I can say we rode a really good race. From my point of view it was a very good race and we tried everything to make the race really explosive, but it was not enough. We had two better riders today. But there's another chance next year."

That Pogačar – and the bookies – could have such confidence that things will one day go his way is a testament to his unparalleled ability as a bike racer. What other Tour de France winner would start as the favorite to win a one-day classic where the iconic final climb has just a 3.7% average gradient? Vincenzo Nibali was the last Tour winner to take San Remo and his victory came as a stunning surprise that year, but Pogačar is among the favorites every time he starts this race because he is Tadej Pogačar, Tour of Flanders winner and all-around talent for the ages.

And yet, Alpecin-Deceuninck has his number at this race, having bested him the past three years in a row. Try as he might, Pogačar can't seem to shake Van der Poel on this terrain. Twice now, Van der Poel has followed his moves and then won for himself, while last year, he helped chase down the moves to set up teammate Jasper Philipsen for victory.

Coming up short over and over again at San Remo clearly stings for Pogačar – but it might not be a bad thing for cycling. In any sport, dominance can come with a price, as fans tune in week after week to see the same result play out each time ... until they start tuning out. Predictability is not what organizers want.

Pogačar is too good of a sport to let his dejection linger for long, and he was duly congratulatory to the rider that has his number at San Remo.

Fortunately, Milan-San Remo can lay legitimate claim to being one of the most unpredictable races on the calendar, with its 17 different winners for the past 17 years (Óscar Freire was the last repeat winner, taking the 2007 and 2010 editions). On Saturday, the race delivered on that unpredictability in thrilling and even ironic fashion. Perhaps it should have been predictable that a former winner would do it again, but that repeat win for Van der Poel was proof that Pogačar, even at the height of his powers, can be beaten. Victory has seemed almost inevitable for him these past 12 months, but at Milan-San Remo, things did not go his way.

That seemed like a tough pill for Pogačar to swallow as he stood on the final podium – helped onto the correct step by former winner Nibali – looking like he wanted to be somewhere else, and that's understandable. It also might be good for cycling. Had Pogačar won, we would probably be heading into the upcoming cobbled Classics expecting more of the inevitable.

Instead, we will go in wondering whether Pogačar can get revenge, whether Van der Poel can defend his titles, or whether someone else will crash the party. Nothing is inevitable.

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