After he delivered Jasper Philipsen to his third stage win on stage 16, world road champion and lead-out man extraordinaire Mathieu van der Poel was asked what was next for sprinters at the 2024 Tour de France.
“Suffering, I guess,” the Alpecin-Deceuninck rider quipped in reply, adding, “I think there’s not much left for us.”
And that’s true in general of sprinter aspirations this Tour. With the race finishing in a city other than Paris for the first time in its history, there will be no gallop on the Champs-Elysées. A time trial in Nice takes its place, and two tough days in the Alps precede it.
But for two riders in the race – Philipsen and fellow triple-stage winner Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) – there is absolutely some unfinished business. Just 33 points separates them in the points standings, and if Philipsen, last year’s winner, wants to take the green jersey off Girmay’s back where it’s sat since stage 5, he has some work to do (no other rider is mathematically in the hunt for green). It may all come down to Thursday’s stage 18.
On paper, the 179.5 km ride from Gap to Barcelonnette is tailor-made for a break. With four Category 3 cimbs and a long false-flat grind to the finish, it’s neither a straightforward sprint nor a day for the GC. And with the right tactics, either rider could put a bow on the points classification in one day.
The course and circumstances favor Girmay. For one, he’s, well, 33 points ahead in the standings. Each intermediate sprint has a maximum of 20 points on offer for the first rider across the line, while stage 18 carries a maximum of 30 points to the winner. Of stage 19 and 20, only stage 19’s intermediate sprint is early enough in the stage to be an option for non-climbers.
That means Philipsen must find a total net haul of 34 points out of a maximum of 70 available, which is highly unlikely but not impossible. (As an aside, the current standings also highlight how consequential Philipsen’s relegation was on stage 6; he not only lost 30 points for getting relegated from second to last rider in the main bunch, but was penalized an additional 13 for impeding Wout van Aert. Meanwhile, Girmay got a bonus of 10 points for bumping up a spot to second place, for a total swing of 53 points – enough that, had he not been relegated, Philipsen would now be narrowly in the lead assuming all other results held.)
The combination of math and route profile makes Girmay’s task quite a bit easier as he can simply shadow Philipsen all day on Thursday. Even if Philipsen takes a few points back, if the total doesn’t get him to closer than 20 points behind Girmay – the max amount on offer in the intermediate sprint that comes early in Friday’s stage 19 – the competition is effectively over.
Philipsen faces an uphill fight if he wants to try, and I mean that literally. Stage 18 starts with two Category 3 climbs before the intermediate sprint comes 64.5 km in on the stage. His best bet is for his Alpecin team to get him and some helpers in the break, without Girmay if possible, and simply drill it team-time-trial style across over those climbs to stay clear of any chase by Intermarché. Even then, Philipsen’s work is not done; he will have to stay clear of the field over the final three climbs and long drag to the finish to score more points at the finish.
That would take a whole-of-team commitment, made harder with the loss of Jonas Rickaert and Søren Kragh Andersen, both of whom finished outside the time limit on stage 12. Essentially, Philipsen will need riders like Axel Laurance and Silvan Dillier to sacrifice themselves in the early going to get him in the break, and then would need Gianni Vermeersch and/or Van der Poel with him in the move for further assistance.
Girmay, as the better climber on paper, could easily neutralize that simply by riding alertly in the early kilometers and making sure Philipsen doesn’t get up the road without him. He could also turn the tables and strike out in the break himself to try to catch Philipsen out and put the competition out of reach entirely. Although he was not seriously hurt in the stage 16 crash and finished comfortably in the first grupetto on Wednesday, Girmay may opt to ride defensively.
So what will happen? Alpecin has already won three stages with Philipsen. There aren’t more on offer for him, but a rider like Van der Poel absolutely could win stage 18 from the break. My guess is they’ll play the opportunist hand for both options and see what falls in their lap. If Girmay is gapped, they’ll ride for green and the stage. If he’s not, it’ll be the Mathieu van der Poel show. But watch out: Girmay is equally able to go for the win himself.
All week, as his star has risen, Philipsen said he’s just trying to enjoy each win as it comes. He also said after Girmay’s crash that his rival didn’t deserve to lose green that way. When asked after his stage 16 win what were his chances of wearing green on the podium in Nice, he replied, “About five percent.” But, he added, “it’s good to have a small goal for the coming days, and to see if I can get some points instead of just riding around.”
Which will it be? We’ll find out early in the stage on Thursday.
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