How does one predict a race like Paris-Roubaix? It’s a race where everything has to go right to win, but there are so many opportunities for everything to go wrong. The very first edition of Paris-Roubaix Femmes avec Zwift was one where only the winner had a good day. Deep in the mud and the blood and the tears, the rest of the race slipped over the cobbles like they were riding on ice. In the two editions since the winner has been a surprise – last year with Alison Jackson more than Elisa Longo Borghini in 2022 – but both outsmarted the pre-race favourites to take victory.
As we approach the fourth edition of Paris-Rouabix Femmes, instead of trying to map out every possible scenario for the race, we turned to the peloton and asked what they think will happen on Saturday. Some put a staggering amount of thought into their answer, some sketched out unlikely – but not impossible! – scenarios, while some just hoped for the best for their team.
There will be a Steven Bradbury moment on the final lap of the velodrome and we’ll see a surprise winner.
Tiffany Cromwell, Canyon-SRAM
Cromwell is referring to Steven Bradbury the speed skater from Australia, not the British cyclist of the same name who rode for SwiftCarbon and Vitus p/b Brother UK.
The context: Bradbury, the speed skater, became Australia’s first-ever Winter Olympic gold medalist when he won the men’s 1,000-meter short track event in Salt Lake City. In the final lap of the final round, Bradbury was up against the best in the sport when they all took each other out, like dominoes. Bradbury, who had been at the back of the five-person field, was the last man standing and walked away with the gold medal.
We don’t want to wait for a group sprint; we will fight like hell for the win.
Amber Kraak, FDJ-Suez
FDJ-Suez has not been shy about taking the fight to the superteams this season. And while this is only the fourth edition of Paris-Roubaix Femmes, many teams are looking at how the previous editions unfolded to identify the early break as a crucial way to get ahead of the chaos and ensure a presence in the final. So it’s no surprise that Kraak – who won a stage at the UAE Tour out of a 90 km move – is a good option. But she thinks weather may conspire otherwise.
“It will be a fight for the early break, but with the wind a lot of teams will be prepared for echelons, so the chances for the early break are limited,” she said. But they’ll likely still try. Conditions during recon “were really tough, and with the strong tailwind I expect a really fast race with a lot of crashes on the cobbles.”
Kraak said FDJ is in a good position to be flexible and adapt to the race as it unfolds. “We will make it a hard race,” she promised. “It would be nice to get ahead of the race myself, but we have many cards to play for it.”
The last French rider winning was Frederic Guesdon and he’s Breton so I made the list of the Bretonnes at the start and will draw a number among them. Let’s hope I draw mine.
Audrey Cordon-Ragot, Human Powered Health
As of writing, Cordon-Ragot has only one other Breton to contend with: Aude Biannic of Movistar. Biannic is from Landerneau, which sits on the Elorn River in between Cornouaille and Léon. In 2023 Cordon-Ragot was the fifth fastest Frenchwoman at Paris-Roubaix Femmes, behind Eugénie Duval (FDJ-Suez), Marion Borras (St Michel-Mavic-Auber 93), Margaux Vigie (Lifeplus-Wahoo) and Victoire Berteau (Cofidis).
Duval is from Évreux in Normandy, Borras is from Pontcharra in the Isère department of southeastern France, Vigie is from Plaisance-du-Touch also in the Southern part of France, and Berteau is from Lambres-lez-Douai in Nord. Hopefully, all that means the race will be in Cordon-Ragot’s favour.
Zoe Bäckstedt passes over the heads of the group and land into the velodrome alone.
Elisa Longo Borghini, Lidl-Trek
Tour of Flanders winner Elisa Longo Borghini will not be racing across the pavé on Saturday but she did have some thoughts on how the race will unfold.
“In the finale on Carrefour, the front group is made up of all six SD Worx riders plus three from Lidl-Trek. However because a famous energy drink gives you wings, Zoe Bäckstedt [who is sponsored by Red Bull – Ed.] passes over the heads of the group and land into the velodrome alone. As she flies over the group though the wind causes everyone’s helmets to go over their eyes and they take a wrong turn.
“Elynor Bäckstedt is a little bit behind and so she doesn’t go wrong and so she gets second place. The third-place rider was alone behind but has a puncture on the cobbles of Hem and has to wheelie until the velodrome.”
What a wild edition that will be! Hopefully, at least some of Longo Borghini’s predictions come to pass, just for the stories that will be told after the race. This is a sign for any riders reading to tighten their helmets a bit extra.
I think Alison is going to win Paris-Roubaix, only because I let her do it so she can have a repeat. I’ll be second and third place will be Letizia. Wait, I’m going to swap out me for Nina. Nina can get second. I’m out.
Coryn Labecki, EF Education-Cannondale
Coryn Labecki of EF Education-Cannondale is hoping her teammate Alison Jackon can repeat the success she had in the velodrome in 2023 but this time with some friendly jerseys alongside her for company.
If the peloton learned anything during last year’s edition it’s that the early break is the place to be, so why not get your whole team up there? That’s one way to have the upper hand going into the cobbles.
This race is so unpredictable, but I think it would be amazing to have our whole team in the early break, and surely Leti winning by 10 minutes 😆🤣. She’s on fire at the moment.
Amber Pate, Liv AlUla Jayco
Letizia Paternoster is indeed on fire. In the last three weeks, she’s forced herself into the conversation as a rider to watch on Saturday with a podium finish at Dwars door Vlaanderen and ninth at the Tour of Flanders. Pate thinks she’ll take that form and run with it, 10 minutes up the road.
Pfeiffer Georgi’s prediction for Saturday is brief. With the weather leading up to the race, even if the sun is shining, her DSM-Firmenich PostNL kit isn’t going to stay white for long.
Our white DSM Firmenich-PostNL jerseys will be ruined and dirty by sector three.
Pfeiffer Georgi, DSM Firmenich-PostNL
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