Who's going to win the Giro d'Italia?
Your knee-jerk answer will be different today than yesterday, and will likely be different again tomorrow.
UAE's Isaac del Toro is no longer putting his jacket on while others grimace, instead dropping after the opening stanza to this mouthwatering third week.
Meanwhile, Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) is the big winner from another smash and grab (sans stage win this time) to move himself up into third, half a minute behind Del Toro. And don't forget Visma's Simon (Philip) Yates, five seconds ahead of Carapaz, also able to drop the pink jersey and riding with intent over the hellishly lengthy and uphill stage 16 on Tuesday.
The third week of this Giro will be a long one of twists and turns in the GC battle (it will feel infinitely longer for the riders themselves), and so those quick to dethrone Del Toro as done, ordain Carapaz as the now the clear and obvious victor, as well as other myriad other jumping-of-the-gun (Tiberi sadly dropped down to 8th today and looks out of it) assumptions are best left alone.
Del Toro has already had his pink jersey lead slip to under half a minute before building it back up again, and in just his second Grand Tour stage 16 (where he lost a minute and a half to Carapaz) could have been his one bad day, as younger riders are more prone to.
Similarly, of challengers Yates, Carapaz, even Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech) now only a minute and a half down after a stealthily strong ride up today's finishing climb, which of them is impervious to a bad day on the bike? As the load of a Grand Tour takes its toll, who would you really bet the house on to carry it until the end?
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