The pro peloton is rolling right along through the 2024 season, with the Spring Classics and the first two men’s Grand Tours of the year in the rearview mirror, and that can only mean one thing. The stage racers have arrived at the last chance saloon.
The Vuelta a España starts on Saturday in Lisbon.
If the many successive years of fiery battles among big-name Grand Tour stars weren’t enough to draw you in already, last year’s race proved especially intriguing thanks to Jumbo-Visma’s decidedly chaotic team strategy – and two of the big names that made things so fun to watch in 2023 are back again this time around.
Also check out our preview of the climber-friendly course and details about how to watch, but here’s how we see the contenders stacking up …
The favorites: Kuss vs. Roglič vs. UAE
On the eve of the race, the 2024 Vuelta a España looks like a three-team contest. Defending champion Sepp Kuss will lead Visma-Lease a Bike, three-time winner Primož Roglič headlines Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, and UAE Team Emirates has both João Almeida and Adam Yates as potential winners in the ranks. If the eventual winner doesn’t come out of one of those three camps, we will be quite surprised.
Roglič is the bookmakers’ favorite. He is hunting for his fourth career Vuelta win, and Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe has a strong team to support him, with Daniel Martínez as an excellent second card to play and Aleksandr Vlasov along for the ride as well. Roglič would almost certainly prefer a course with more time trialing, but even as it stands, when in peak form and without any major misfortune, he is one of the best Grand Tour racers in the world and has been for years, especially at the Vuelta. But is he in peak form and can he avoid misfortune?
While there was some question about his start after Roglič revealed a fractured vertebrae from a Tour crash and opted out of last weekend’s Clasica San Sebastian, we’re willing to bet that he is at least close to his best in the form department, having had ample time to recover from those injuries. But even before he went down at the Tour, he did not look to be quite as strong as expected. He is, after all, 34 years old. And while he has generally been able to avoid his characteristic turns of misfortunate at the Vuelta, it has been a few years now since he last won this race. In short, there are question marks around Roglič.
Kuss did not have the early summer he wanted either, coming down with COVID-19 and missing the Tour de France. He proved with his stage and overall victory at the recent Vuelta a Burgos, however, that he is back in shape to attempt a Vuelta a España title defense. In contrast to Roglič, Kuss will be very pleased at the climber-friendly route, and speaking of Roglič, don’t let last year’s intra-team drama at the then-Jumbo-Visma squad fool you. At points in that race, Kuss looked every bit as strong as the two teammates who could not seem to decide whether to ride in support of the American.
Even if Cian Uijtdebroeks and Wout van Aert have free roles at the Vuelta, Kuss will have a strong team around him and little risk of red jersey rivals within his own squad. Given that, the field, and the course, this is about as good a chance as he can hope for to win a second Vuelta.
UAE’s strength lies in numbers, as Almeida and Yates – and maybe even Isaac del Toro and Brandon McNulty – are legitimate contenders to win. The bookies have a slight preference for Almeida, but we like Yates equally as much on this climber-friendly parcours. Almeida also has a habit of underperforming when going for a GC win. In any case, both riders looked very good at the Tour this year, and in general, UAE seems to have really stepped it up across the board.
If the team can use its collective firepower to a tactical advantage, Roglič and Kuss (especially Kuss, given the lack of Martínezes and Vlasovs on his team) will have their hands full.
The best of the rest
Enric Mas of Movistar is one of several Spanish climbers who will give the home crowd plenty of reason for excitement. He did not have his best Tour de France, but he is a three-time Vuelta runner-up, so don’t bet against him at least being in the mix.
Mikel Landa had a fine Tour, and he seems to have really settled in at Soudal-Quick Step. This will be his shot at team leadership for the year, and it will come in the race most suited to his pure climber skillset.
Carlos Rodríguez of the Ineos Grenadiers feels like a high-ceiling, low-floor pick for the GC. He looked so good at last year’s Tour de France that his less-promising ride at the 2024 Tour felt like a real disappointment. Still, he’s young, he’s a better time trialist than his aforementioned compatriots, and if he can re-find his form he could battle for the podium.
Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) is fresh off an invigorating Tour ride that saw him bounce back from a rough early summer to win a stage and the King of the Mountains title. He has finished as highly as second at the Vuelta, but he has also been a bit of a boom or bust rider in the GC department lately. If he’s at his best, he will fight for the podium. Otherwise, he may hunt stages and finish outside the top 10.
Tao Geoghegan Hart is a big question mark as his very rough first season with Lidl-Trek nears its end. He is a Grand Tour winner who can be among the very best when healthy and fit, but that has so often not been the case thus far in his career that it is hard to trust in his chances. He does have a fine team around him, at least, with Mattias Skjelmose and Giulio Ciccone also Vuelta-bound for Lidl-Trek.
Ben O’Connor (Decathlon-AG2R la Mondiale), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto Dstny), and David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) are others to watch as the 2024 Vuelta unfolds over the next three weeks in Portugal and Spain.
The Escape Collective star ratings
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐: Primož Roglič, Sepp Kuss
⭐⭐⭐⭐: João Almeida, Adam Yates
⭐⭐⭐: Enric Mas, Mikel Landa, Richard Carapaz, Daniel Martínez, Carlos Rodríguez
⭐⭐: Isaac del Toro, Tao Geoghegan Hart, Mattias Skjelmose
⭐: Ben O’Connor, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Antonio Tiberi, Lennert Van Eetvelt, Felix Gall, Thymen Arensman, David Gaudu
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