All the best climbers in women's cycling couldn't get to the line faster than Elisa Balsamo at Trofeo Alfredo Binda on Sunday. The Lidl-Trek rider was invisible for the entirety of the race, only coming out of the woodwork to sprint to victory ahead of Blanka Vas (SD Worx-Protime) and Cat Ferguson (Movistar). Late race attacks from Anna van der Breggen (SD Worx-Protime), Demi Vollering (FDJ-SUEZ), and Elisa Longo Borghini (UAE ADQ) were for nothing as the race came back together within 1 km from the finish line.
It was just another example of the new politics of the peloton with the return of Van der Breggen and Pauline Ferrand-Prévot, the move of Longo Borghini, and the continued changes that have made women's cycling more competitive than ever. Sunday's race highlighted exactly how Balsamo can win Milan-San Remo Women next weekend, but some adjustments will need to be made within Lidl-Trek for that to happen.
The women's Trofeo Alfredo Binda is normally a race frequented by only a few top names in women's cycling. In recent years, as riders have started to adjust their calendars to target the Flanders Classics races, the weekend of racing in Italy is pushed aside in favour of a quality training block post-Omloop Het Nieuwsblad.
This weekend, however, most of the top names in the sport made their way to Cittiglio to test their legs on the rolling terrain. Only Lotte Kopecky and Kasia Niewiadoma were absent; the world champion is set to start her 2025 season at San Remo Women next weekend and the 2024 Tour winner is recovering from a crash in Strade Bianche.
This race features some significant climbing in the opening stages but always comes down to the final circuits that feature two short ascents. It's an early-season one-day event that can truly be won by anyone. Winning moves have gone on the climbs in the past, but the race can also come down to a reduced bunch sprint. For this reason, the list of winners is varied, from Marianne Vos to Kasia Niewiadoma to Elisa Longo Borghini to Balsamo.
The list of favourites on Sunday prior to the race included 2023 Tour de France Femmes avec Zwift winner Demi Vollering, former multi-time world champion Van der Breggen, G.O.A.T. Marianne Vos, Pauline Ferrand-Prévot, 2024 Giro d'Italia winner Elisa Longo Borghini, Puck Pieterse...the list goes on.
With the quality of climbers on the start list, one could assume the finish would be a selective one, and the climbers probably thought the same. Within the final 20 km, there were multiple situations that easily could have been race-done. Van der Breggen solo off the front with 15 km to go, an attack with Longo Borghini, Vollering and Pieterse. A group containing those three plus Noemi Rüegg, Ferrand-Prévot, Kim Le Court, Vos, and Marta Cavalli. The final move of the day saw Longo Borghini, Vollering, Pieterse and Monica Trinca-Colonel off the front within 1 km of the line.
Surprisingly, it wasn't a strong chase from Lidl-Trek that made Balsamo's win possible. In fact, with a powerful move contending for the win in the final kilometres, the primary colours of the American team were nowhere to be seen. Longo Borghini's former team, once one of the strongest in the peloton, was only represented by Niamh Fisher-Black, who jumped on a few moves earlier in the race, and Lizzie Diegnan, who had been in the pre-live coverage move. Balsamo, used to having Longo Borghini by her side, benefited from SD Worx-Protime working on behalf of Blanka Vas.
Both of Balsamo's prior victories at Trofeo Alfredo Binda were thanks to a full team effort but when it came down to the final turn Balsamo was surfing the wheels without a teammate in sight. If the Italian wants to win in San Remo, her team will need to be around her on the final climbs, and she will need a strong chase to fuse the race together before the line. Ellen van Dijk, who was not present on Sunday, will need to be there, but the team will need more than the former time trial world champion to fill the void left by Longo Borghini, and to best their lost teammate. Emma Norsgaard might come in handy, depending on how she's climbing.
The strongest team throughout the day was UAE Team ADQ, who sent Longo Borghini and Dominika Wlodarczyk on the attack and had Brodie Chapman, Eleonora Gasparrini and Karlijn Swinkels fusing the peloton back together. It was Longo Borghini's team that chased down Van der Breggen when she made her solo move. SD Worx-Protime was also active with the former world champion Femke Gerritse on chase duty, as well as eventual podium finisher Vas.
While Visma-Lease a Bike was present in a few of the key moves, they ended up missing out on the podium with Vos finishing fourth. Liv AlUla Jayco was also recognizable but only managed fifth on the day.
So why couldn't any of the top climbers get away? Whenever one of them missed the move the others were quick to chase, and when all of them were off the front together there simply wasn't enough commitment. They all neutralized each other. That doesn't mean those same riders won't contend San Remo next weekend. If anyone is planning on placing some bets before Saturday, betting that Longo Borghini will be the key instigator on the Poggio would probably not be a bad call.
In the end, the reduced bunch sprint sheds some light on the potential finish to come at the revamped San Remo Women. The race will finish with the same historic roads as the men's, so much like Trofeo Alfredo Binda, the winner is anyone's guess, although Lotte Kopecky will be a hard one to beat. The race on March 22nd could be won by Balsamo from a reduced group, or a solo rider who is able to get away on the Poggio.
Kopecky will start her season in Genova and without knowing her form she will be one to watch. If she's even a fraction as strong as she was last season she will easily be able to follow a move by Longo Borghini on the final climb and then outsprint the Italian on the line. Longo Borghini has proved her form is right where it needs to be, and a win at San Remo Women would look right at home next to her Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix Femmes, and Strade Bianche victories.
Vos also proved she cannot be trusted on Saturday. The Dutchwoman, now in her third decade of racing, was following the climbers on a few occasions and was able to get amongst it in the sprint. It was her first race of the season, and clearly, she was dusting off the cobwebs ahead of San Remo.
To summarize: Vos can outclimb Balsamo but Longo Borghini and Kopecky can outclimb Vos. However, if Balsamo (who is climbing quite well) can make it over the climb or Lidl-Trek can pull back in any attackers before the line, no one can outsprint her from a select group. Ferrand-Prévot might be strong enough to make it into a selection but hasn't shown she could win from one, and Pieterse could probably land herself on the podium no matter how the race goes. Lorena Wiebes, who didn't race Trofeo Alfredo Binda, remains a top contender but that depends on how the climbers attack the Poggio. The team that will be making the race hard going into the Poggio is UAE Team ADQ.
The women haven't raced to San Remo in 20 years, the last winner was Trixi Worrack in 2005, but based on the one-days so far it's easy to see who will be fighting for the win on Saturday. Trofeo Alfredo Binda, one of the longest-running races on the women's calendar, hinted at who will be contesting the win in San Remo, and more importantly how the tactics of the peloton will likely play out on the coastal road in Italy.
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