Leave something for the rest of them, Pogi.
There is a chance, and not a particularly slim one, that Tadej Pogačar could wear all three jerseys available to him in Paris. He could unite the belts. Stand on the podium in the middle, then off to the right a bit, then off to the left. First in yellow, then in polka dots, and green. It would be an astounding feat, and yet, to me, a slightly depressing one. An indication that something is broken.
Not Pogačar; he’s not broken. Greatness is as greatness does. He races the race put before him and he does it better than just about anyone, most of the time. No, the structure of those competitions would be broken. They are not supposed to award the best rider in the race. They are not supposed to be accidental side quests, to be ticked off once the main boss has been defeated.
Let’s talk specifically about the green jersey, which is the one Pogačar really should not win. Yes, it’s technically the “points” jersey, not the “sprint” jersey, but that’s ignoring that it’s been won by sprinters, or at least sprinter-adjacent riders like Peter Sagan, for decades. It’s theirs. That’s who owns it. That’s who cares about it. That matters more than what it's called.
The fundamental problem is one of points allocation. There are more points available for "stages without particular difficulty," meaning flat stages - 50 for the winner. That's what usually tilts the jersey in favor of sprinters. But even the high mountains ("stages with a very difficult profile") have 20 available to the winner. Crucially, the points fall away quickly on the flat stages: 50 to 30 to 20 for the top 3. But in the mountains, it goes 20 (1st), 17 (2nd), 15 (3rd). That means 3rd in a mountain stage gets you almost as many points (15) as 3rd on Saturday's sprint stage (20).
This is why, speaking with Escape Collective and other media outside the team bus on Saturday, Lidl-Trek manager Luca Guercilena pointed at Pogačar as the favorite for green. His team has obviously done the numbers. “This year is very complicated for the green jersey, there are certain stages that deliver a big amount of points,” he said. “We know Pogi, actually, is even the biggest favorite for that jersey. But we don’t give up. It’s not [sure mathematically] that we’ve lost it. It was one of our goals, on top of winning stages. We take it as it is, we will fight, we will try to get the most points as possible.”
How many points is that? As of the finish of Stage 8, Jonathan Milan is in the driving seat. He’s sitting on 182 points after a 10-point deduction for “obstruction of a rider” in the finale of stage 8. Those have come from his stage win and his 2nd place into Dunkirk on stage 2, plus a healthy crop of intermediate sprints in between. Pogačar has 156 points, almost entirely from finishes.
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