The idea was not a new one. Visma-Lease a Bike did the same thing last year, on the way to Courchevel, and the year before into the Galibier. They pile on the front, roughly in order of largest rider to smallest, each pulling until they can pull no more. Like a sprinter’s leadout but 180 kilometers long, timed to end just a few minutes from the finish line. The high pace and heat and consistent pressure has cracked Tadej Pogačar in the past, and Jonas Vingegaard hoped it would again.
“I think there is still a chance,” Vingegaard said. He’s more than three minutes down, but won the last Tour by more than seven, so he is right to retain some optimism. “The Tour de France is still not finished and sometimes in the past two years, Tadej has had a bad day,” he said. “We have to hope that can still happen.”
Sunday’s stage to Plateau de Beille had all the hallmarks Vingegaard and team look for. This stage, and the one next week to Isola 2000 in the Alps, were earmarked more than six months ago as the best to break Pogačar. Two ideal final climbs, with steep sections suited to Vingegaard’s lighter frame, and multiple hard climbs in the leadup to soften Slovenian legs. Visma believes that Pogačar struggles when the total physical load is high, and that belief has borne fruit for two years running.
It’s reasonable to question the decision to go ahead with the same plan on Sunday, given that most signs pointed to likely failure. Visma is down a number of key domestiques – Sepp Kuss and Steven Kruijskwijk at the top of the list. Vingegaard has run hot and cold, riding well to Le Lioran to haul back Pogačar and then losing time on Pla d’Adet. But you don’t know unless you try, and the stages identified as Vingegaard’s best last autumn remain the best for him today. If not today, then when? Visma had to go for it. To adjust a time-worn phrase, they weren’t sure they could win the Tour today but failing to try might guarantee losing it.
“I believed in Jonas today, really I did,” Jorgenson said. “I believed we could crack Pogačar; in the end, he’s one of the best riders in the world.”
It was actually a very Pogačar-like approach, ironically enough. Pushing forward with confidence even when it may not be merited is part of what has endeared him to cycling fans, and if a quick glance at our Discord channel and social media is any indicator, Vingegaard today benefited from a similar sentiment.
You can paint Visma’s tactics today as bold, fearless in the face of dwindling form and team strength that just hasn’t been there, and that sentiment isn’t wrong. It was bold. It was also top of a short list of dwindling options. Good legs can make up for bad tactics but even the best tactics can’t make up for bad legs. Vingegaard is riding very well, but Visma ran up against a reality that Pogačar is just better right now. In the end it looked more like Visma was setting up Pogačar than setting up their own rider, but if Vingegaard had better legs the same failed tactic would have looked like genius.
Better to go down swinging than sit around waiting for Pogacar to put the knife in.
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