It’s Bastille Day eve, the first proper mountain stage, and after nine days of fast, exposed, chaotic racing, it finally feels like this Tour de France is about to start.
Stage 10’s 165.3 km haul from Ennezat to Le Mont-Dore climbs 4,450 meters over eight categorized ascents, winding through the Massif Central and finishing atop the Le Mont Dore. It’s a true GC day, only the second of the race after the time trial, and comes with all the usual trappings: wounded contenders, tired domestiques, and battle lines drawn across the map of France.
This is where the balance of power among the GC contenders finally moves out of theory and onto the road. And it comes just as Pogačar’s balance shifts, too.
Almeida’s absence is no small thing
João Almeida is out. That’s the headline, and it might be the hinge on which this Tour turns. It's not so much that it makes Pogačar vulnerable as it increaes his options.
Almeida isn't just another mountain domestique. Almeida was fourth overall last year, won three stage races this season, and, more than anyone else in Pogačar’s camp, offered the kind of high-altitude, late-stage horsepower that wins modern Grand Tours. Losing him two days before the first summit finish is brutal timing.
“We’ll keep fighting with seven riders and try to win this Tour also for João,” he said. But when asked how the team might ride Monday’s queen stage, he added something else: “Now we don’t have João, maybe we’ll follow.”
There’s a tactical pivot there. Possibly genuine, possibly mind games. Either way, it’s not how Pogačar typically talks. He’s an instinct rider, a natural aggressor. If he’s even considering a defensive posture, it says a lot about what Almeida meant to his Tour plans.
Visma’s moment to strike?
For Jonas Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike, this is the window they’ve been trying to pry open since Stage 1. They tried crosswinds. They tried chaos. They tried the kind of first-week pressure campaign that’s become a signature move under Grischa Niermann. But none of it really landed.
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